Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

Microsoft Corporation vs Oracle Corporation

WatchlistMSFT / ORCLPrices through Nov 10, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($3869B vs $382B) in Nasdaq's "Computer Software: Prepackaged Software" industry; SEC SIC 7372 / 7372 (same major group); #1 and #3 by market value ($3869B vs $382B) with SEC SIC 7372 (Services-Prepackaged Software).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

  • Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.47 (needs >= 0.60)
  • Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.50 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
  • Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 150.86 (needs <= 63)
Business leadership

MSFT is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

YearMSFTORCLLarger
2025$281.7B$67.4BMSFT
2024$245.1B$57.4BMSFT
2023$211.9B$53.0BMSFT
2022$198.3B$50.0BMSFT
2021$168.1B$42.4BMSFT
2020$143.0B$40.5BMSFT

MSFT led in every year with figures for both. Market value: MSFT $3.87T, ORCL $381.6B.

Stock leadership

MSFT is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

MSFT leads ORCL by 2.37 standard deviations: +64.5% over its usual price ratio. 3 lead switches in the last year.

Price change3 mo6 mo12 mo
MSFT+8.3%+30.8%+7.3%
ORCL-23.0%-36.9%-50.7%
Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass
Aligned sessions: 2534 (needs >= 254)
Fail
Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.47 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.50 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Fail
Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 150.86 (needs <= 63)
Data
Both stocks current
The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ORCL Oracle CorporationPrice index, 100 = 2024-11-06. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
100150Nov 2024Nov 2025Nov 2026MSFT 127ORCL 65
Spread z-score: MSFT relative to ORCL, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: MSFT ahead; below 0: ORCL ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
-4stop-2idea0+2idea+4stopNov 2024Nov 2025Nov 2026
Data table (504 sessions)
DateMSFT indexORCL indexzAhead
2026-11-10126.8965.10+2.37MSFT ahead
2026-11-09129.7566.09+2.44MSFT ahead
2026-11-06126.2864.06+2.50MSFT ahead
2026-11-05127.5563.54+2.62MSFT ahead
2026-11-04132.2868.27+2.49MSFT ahead
2026-11-03123.9969.63+2.09MSFT ahead
2026-11-02120.6965.78+2.27MSFT ahead
2026-10-30124.2172.10+1.98MSFT ahead
2026-10-29126.1777.00+1.74MSFT ahead
2026-10-28126.3879.75+1.58MSFT ahead
2026-10-27126.4572.02+2.12MSFT ahead
2026-10-26126.7669.55+2.33MSFT ahead
2026-10-23124.8369.61+2.27MSFT ahead
2026-10-22124.0169.27+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-10-21126.8471.25+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-10-20126.5872.36+2.22MSFT ahead
2026-10-19126.9771.50+2.31MSFT ahead
2026-10-16125.9170.75+2.34MSFT ahead
2026-10-15128.3874.19+2.22MSFT ahead
2026-10-14127.0172.03+2.33MSFT ahead
2026-10-13129.3479.01+1.97MSFT ahead
2026-10-12128.7975.81+2.18MSFT ahead
2026-10-09127.3478.02+1.99MSFT ahead
2026-10-08124.3874.87+2.11MSFT ahead
2026-10-07126.0879.21+1.90MSFT ahead
2026-10-06125.9779.88+1.87MSFT ahead
2026-10-05124.9978.61+1.93MSFT ahead
2026-10-02123.1778.51+1.88MSFT ahead
2026-10-01122.0476.18+2.00MSFT ahead
2026-09-30122.0775.76+2.05MSFT ahead
2026-09-29121.1376.03+2.01MSFT ahead
2026-09-28121.1973.16+2.24MSFT ahead
2026-09-25122.8475.65+2.15MSFT ahead
2026-09-24118.5076.99+1.88MSFT ahead
2026-09-23119.1479.76+1.74MSFT ahead
2026-09-22118.5282.32+1.55MSFT ahead
2026-09-21119.3881.97+1.63MSFT ahead
2026-09-18117.5281.44+1.59MSFT ahead
2026-09-17118.4683.09+1.53MSFT ahead
2026-09-16116.6978.99+1.73MSFT ahead
2026-09-15118.3177.44+1.92MSFT ahead
2026-09-14120.2879.89+1.86MSFT ahead
2026-09-11117.9682.92+1.57MSFT ahead
2026-09-10117.2084.39+1.46MSFT ahead
2026-09-09117.0189.18+1.18MSFT ahead
2026-09-08117.5689.67+1.19MSFT ahead
2026-09-04118.9387.61+1.38MSFT ahead
2026-09-03121.4184.99+1.66MSFT ahead
2026-09-02118.2480.42+1.83MSFT ahead
2026-09-01119.2477.97+2.05MSFT ahead
2026-08-31120.7382.28+1.86MSFT ahead
2026-08-28122.2283.23+1.89MSFT ahead
2026-08-27120.2083.83+1.78MSFT ahead
2026-08-26118.1382.14+1.81MSFT ahead
2026-08-25117.0279.87+1.94MSFT ahead
2026-08-24115.9878.60+2.00MSFT ahead
2026-08-21115.0180.82+1.82MSFT ahead
2026-08-20114.5178.39+1.99MSFT ahead
2026-08-19115.2679.35+1.98MSFT ahead
2026-08-18114.6278.79+2.02MSFT ahead
2026-08-17114.3280.91+1.87MSFT ahead
2026-08-14117.9083.05+1.92MSFT ahead
2026-08-13118.2586.20+1.75MSFT ahead
2026-08-12117.2084.57+1.83MSFT ahead
2026-08-11119.9080.27+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-08-10120.4483.34+2.13MSFT ahead
2026-08-07118.9981.12+2.24MSFT ahead
2026-08-06118.9679.16+2.42MSFT ahead
2026-08-05116.0179.67+2.27MSFT ahead
2026-08-04117.2980.41+2.31MSFT ahead
2026-08-03116.0678.27+2.45MSFT ahead
2026-07-31110.6071.66+2.75MSFT ahead
2026-07-30107.3670.38+2.72MSFT ahead
2026-07-2992.9564.96+2.36MSFT ahead
2026-07-2893.6166.19+2.32MSFT ahead
2026-07-2792.6066.16+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-07-2490.8463.45+2.47MSFT ahead
2026-07-2390.8166.23+2.22MSFT ahead
2026-07-2292.9069.43+2.08MSFT ahead
2026-07-2194.6670.10+2.17MSFT ahead
2026-07-2095.7466.97+2.60MSFT ahead
2026-07-1793.7369.75+2.21MSFT ahead
2026-07-1695.4668.53+2.50MSFT ahead
2026-07-1594.1673.10+1.98MSFT ahead
2026-07-1491.6170.59+2.06MSFT ahead
2026-07-1393.0572.58+2.00MSFT ahead
2026-07-1091.6577.60+1.42MSFT ahead
2026-07-0991.4879.57+1.24MSFT ahead
2026-07-0891.2377.52+1.42MSFT ahead
2026-07-0792.5478.13+1.48MSFT ahead
2026-07-0692.0479.32+1.34MSFT ahead
2026-07-0292.9377.39+1.61MSFT ahead
2026-07-0191.4678.63+1.39MSFT ahead
2026-06-3088.7880.86+0.97MSFT ahead
2026-06-2987.7281.53+0.82MSFT ahead
2026-06-2688.7681.95+0.87MSFT ahead
2026-06-2583.9784.12+0.28near the usual relationship
2026-06-2486.9886.92+0.29near the usual relationship
2026-06-2389.0091.13+0.11near the usual relationship
2026-06-2287.4296.60-0.45near the usual relationship
2026-06-1890.29101.68-0.59ORCL ahead
2026-06-1790.18101.26-0.57ORCL ahead
2026-06-1693.73103.91-0.48near the usual relationship
2026-06-1595.14106.29-0.54ORCL ahead
2026-06-1292.99101.59-0.38near the usual relationship
2026-06-1192.90101.58-0.39near the usual relationship
2026-06-1094.57111.05-0.92ORCL ahead
2026-06-0996.01113.56-0.98ORCL ahead
2026-06-0897.99116.87-1.05ORCL ahead
2026-06-0599.16117.90-1.04ORCL ahead
2026-06-04101.87130.40-1.58ORCL ahead
2026-06-03101.70127.09-1.42ORCL ahead
2026-06-02105.03134.95-1.64ORCL ahead
2026-06-01109.60136.92-1.44ORCL ahead
2026-05-29107.15124.58-0.93ORCL ahead
2026-05-28101.62112.39-0.57ORCL ahead
2026-05-2798.21105.36-0.36near the usual relationship
2026-05-2699.01106.52-0.39near the usual relationship
2026-05-2299.62105.98-0.31near the usual relationship
2026-05-2199.74104.71-0.23near the usual relationship
2026-05-20100.21103.82-0.14near the usual relationship
2026-05-1999.34100.12+0.05near the usual relationship
2026-05-18100.80102.96-0.05near the usual relationship
2026-05-15100.41106.46-0.32near the usual relationship
2026-05-1497.44107.93-0.62ORCL ahead
2026-05-1396.44104.70-0.49near the usual relationship
2026-05-1297.05103.08-0.35near the usual relationship
2026-05-1198.21106.95-0.52ORCL ahead
2026-05-0898.80108.12-0.56ORCL ahead
2026-05-07100.14107.37-0.43near the usual relationship
2026-05-0698.52107.06-0.53ORCL ahead
2026-05-0597.91102.27-0.27near the usual relationship
2026-05-0498.4499.48-0.05near the usual relationship
2026-05-0198.6394.81+0.28near the usual relationship
2026-04-3097.0589.05+0.58MSFT ahead
2026-04-29101.0290.39+0.74MSFT ahead
2026-04-28102.1691.57+0.73MSFT ahead
2026-04-27101.1095.43+0.38near the usual relationship
2026-04-24101.0695.61+0.36near the usual relationship
2026-04-2398.9597.26+0.11near the usual relationship
2026-04-22103.03103.45-0.04near the usual relationship
2026-04-21100.9599.96+0.05near the usual relationship
2026-04-2099.5097.98+0.08near the usual relationship
2026-04-17100.6296.59+0.24near the usual relationship
2026-04-16100.0298.40+0.07near the usual relationship
2026-04-1597.8793.69+0.24near the usual relationship
2026-04-1493.5689.94+0.21near the usual relationship
2026-04-1391.4885.86+0.36near the usual relationship
2026-04-1088.2676.19+0.88MSFT ahead
2026-04-0988.7976.06+0.93MSFT ahead
2026-04-0889.0979.27+0.69MSFT ahead
2026-04-0788.6078.99+0.67MSFT ahead
2026-04-0688.7480.30+0.58MSFT ahead
2026-04-0288.8880.77+0.55MSFT ahead
2026-04-0187.9180.13+0.53MSFT ahead
2026-03-3188.1081.17+0.46near the usual relationship
2026-03-3085.4376.58+0.63MSFT ahead
2026-03-2784.9177.06+0.55MSFT ahead
2026-03-2687.1078.80+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-03-2588.3180.57+0.52MSFT ahead
2026-03-2488.7181.16+0.50MSFT ahead
2026-03-2391.1585.16+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-03-2090.8882.59+0.54MSFT ahead
2026-03-1992.5885.81+0.42near the usual relationship
2026-03-1893.2484.36+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-03-1795.0685.35+0.62MSFT ahead
2026-03-1695.1986.06+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-03-1394.1485.58+0.54MSFT ahead
2026-03-1295.6487.82+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-03-1196.3690.00+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-03-1096.5782.43+0.94MSFT ahead
2026-03-0997.4483.62+0.90MSFT ahead
2026-03-0697.3384.40+0.84MSFT ahead
2026-03-0597.7485.41+0.80MSFT ahead
2026-03-0496.4384.07+0.81MSFT ahead
2026-03-0396.1382.22+0.94MSFT ahead
2026-03-0294.8582.35+0.85MSFT ahead
2026-02-2793.4780.23+0.93MSFT ahead
2026-02-2695.6182.93+0.86MSFT ahead
2026-02-2595.3481.60+0.95MSFT ahead
2026-02-2492.5880.63+0.85MSFT ahead
2026-02-2391.5077.97+0.99MSFT ahead
2026-02-2094.5481.70+0.91MSFT ahead
2026-02-1994.8386.37+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-02-1895.1086.17+0.61MSFT ahead
2026-02-1794.4584.95+0.66MSFT ahead
2026-02-1395.5188.36+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-02-1295.6486.34+0.64MSFT ahead
2026-02-1196.2486.71+0.66MSFT ahead
2026-02-1098.3688.22+0.69MSFT ahead
2026-02-0998.4386.40+0.83MSFT ahead
2026-02-0695.4778.80+1.23MSFT ahead
2026-02-0593.6975.30+1.41MSFT ahead
2026-02-0498.5780.93+1.28MSFT ahead
2026-02-0397.8785.34+0.90MSFT ahead
2026-02-02100.7688.31+0.87MSFT ahead
2026-01-30102.4190.81+0.79MSFT ahead
2026-01-29103.1793.25+0.66MSFT ahead
2026-01-28114.6295.34+1.20MSFT ahead
2026-01-27114.3796.50+1.12MSFT ahead
2026-01-26111.92100.66+0.70MSFT ahead
2026-01-23110.8997.75+0.84MSFT ahead
2026-01-22107.3798.31+0.59MSFT ahead
2026-01-21105.7095.94+0.64MSFT ahead
2026-01-20108.1799.27+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-01-16109.44105.43+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-01-15108.68104.75+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-01-14109.33106.83+0.15near the usual relationship
2026-01-13112.02111.61+0.02near the usual relationship
2026-01-12113.57112.93+0.03near the usual relationship
2026-01-09114.07109.53+0.26near the usual relationship
2026-01-08113.79104.64+0.53MSFT ahead
2026-01-07115.06106.40+0.50MSFT ahead
2026-01-06113.88106.90+0.40near the usual relationship
2026-01-05112.54106.26+0.36near the usual relationship
2026-01-02112.56107.98+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-12-31115.10107.54+0.43near the usual relationship
2025-12-30116.02108.81+0.40near the usual relationship
2025-12-29115.93107.80+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-12-26116.07109.24+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-12-24116.15108.97+0.40near the usual relationship
2025-12-23115.87107.78+0.45near the usual relationship
2025-12-22115.41109.46+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-12-19115.65105.92+0.55MSFT ahead
2025-12-18115.1899.33+0.93MSFT ahead
2025-12-17113.3198.47+0.88MSFT ahead
2025-12-16113.38104.09+0.53MSFT ahead
2025-12-15113.00102.03+0.64MSFT ahead
2025-12-12113.89104.82+0.52MSFT ahead
2025-12-11115.06109.72+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-12-10113.89123.05-0.51ORCL ahead
2025-12-09117.10122.23-0.29near the usual relationship
2025-12-08116.86121.68-0.28near the usual relationship
2025-12-05114.99120.05-0.30near the usual relationship
2025-12-04114.44118.26-0.23near the usual relationship
2025-12-03113.70114.62-0.07near the usual relationship
2025-12-02116.62110.96+0.30near the usual relationship
2025-12-01115.84110.87+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-11-28117.10111.43+0.30near the usual relationship
2025-11-26115.55113.09+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-11-25113.52108.71+0.27near the usual relationship
2025-11-24112.81110.51+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-11-21112.36109.67+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-11-20113.86116.25-0.14near the usual relationship
2025-11-19115.93124.44-0.46near the usual relationship
2025-11-18117.52121.66-0.23near the usual relationship
2025-11-17120.78121.31-0.04near the usual relationship
2025-11-14121.42122.96-0.09near the usual relationship
2025-11-13119.78120.05-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-11-12121.65125.24-0.19near the usual relationship
2025-11-11121.06130.30-0.48near the usual relationship
2025-11-10120.42132.88-0.64ORCL ahead
2025-11-07118.24132.01-0.72ORCL ahead
2025-11-06118.31134.52-0.84ORCL ahead
2025-11-05120.70138.11-0.89ORCL ahead
2025-11-04122.41136.93-0.75ORCL ahead
2025-11-03123.05142.27-0.97ORCL ahead
2025-10-31123.24144.90-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-10-30125.13141.74-0.85ORCL ahead
2025-10-29128.89151.90-1.11ORCL ahead
2025-10-28129.01154.95-1.25ORCL ahead
2025-10-27126.50155.26-1.40ORCL ahead
2025-10-24124.62156.33-1.56ORCL ahead
2025-10-23123.89154.53-1.53ORCL ahead
2025-10-22123.89150.44-1.37ORCL ahead
2025-10-21123.20151.82-1.48ORCL ahead
2025-10-20122.99152.94-1.55ORCL ahead
2025-10-17122.23160.73-1.95ORCL ahead
2025-10-16121.76172.70-2.49ORCL ahead
2025-10-15122.19167.52-2.30ORCL ahead
2025-10-14122.23164.97-2.22ORCL ahead
2025-10-13122.34169.95-2.46ORCL ahead
2025-10-10121.61161.64-2.18ORCL ahead
2025-10-09124.33163.85-2.14ORCL ahead
2025-10-08124.91159.25-1.93ORCL ahead
2025-10-07124.70156.83-1.85ORCL ahead
2025-10-06125.80160.89-2.00ORCL ahead
2025-10-03123.13157.88-2.04ORCL ahead
2025-10-02122.74159.34-2.16ORCL ahead
2025-10-01123.69159.46-2.14ORCL ahead
2025-09-30123.27155.18-1.98ORCL ahead
2025-09-29122.47156.01-2.10ORCL ahead
2025-09-26121.72156.40-2.20ORCL ahead
2025-09-25120.67160.74-2.51ORCL ahead
2025-09-24121.41170.19-2.97ORCL ahead
2025-09-23121.19173.16-3.20ORCL ahead
2025-09-22122.44181.06-3.58ORCL ahead
2025-09-19123.26170.30-3.09ORCL ahead
2025-09-18121.01163.66-2.97ORCL ahead
2025-09-17121.38166.30-3.15ORCL ahead
2025-09-16121.15169.20-3.41ORCL ahead
2025-09-15122.65166.71-3.24ORCL ahead
2025-09-12121.35161.21-3.11ORCL ahead
2025-09-11119.24169.86-3.86ORCL ahead
2025-09-10119.08181.16-4.68ORCL ahead
2025-09-09118.62133.25-1.72ORCL ahead
2025-09-08118.57131.58-1.61ORCL ahead
2025-09-05117.81128.45-1.45ORCL ahead
2025-09-04120.89123.04-0.78ORCL ahead
2025-09-03120.27123.29-0.86ORCL ahead
2025-09-02120.22124.31-0.95ORCL ahead
2025-08-29120.59124.77-0.96ORCL ahead
2025-08-28121.29132.60-1.50ORCL ahead
2025-08-27120.60130.11-1.38ORCL ahead
2025-08-26119.48129.23-1.42ORCL ahead
2025-08-25120.01129.89-1.43ORCL ahead
2025-08-22120.72130.42-1.42ORCL ahead
2025-08-21120.01128.65-1.36ORCL ahead
2025-08-20120.36129.70-1.42ORCL ahead
2025-08-19121.32129.45-1.33ORCL ahead
2025-08-18123.07137.43-1.77ORCL ahead
2025-08-15123.80136.99-1.70ORCL ahead
2025-08-14124.35135.16-1.54ORCL ahead
2025-08-13123.89134.73-1.55ORCL ahead
2025-08-12125.96140.07-1.77ORCL ahead
2025-08-11124.18139.42-1.88ORCL ahead
2025-08-08124.24137.97-1.79ORCL ahead
2025-08-07123.96137.60-1.80ORCL ahead
2025-08-06124.93141.49-2.00ORCL ahead
2025-08-05125.60141.07-1.94ORCL ahead
2025-08-04127.48139.33-1.70ORCL ahead
2025-08-01124.73134.86-1.61ORCL ahead
2025-07-31126.97140.02-1.81ORCL ahead
2025-07-30122.15138.27-2.07ORCL ahead
2025-07-29121.99137.93-2.09ORCL ahead
2025-07-28121.97136.68-2.02ORCL ahead
2025-07-25122.26135.25-1.92ORCL ahead
2025-07-24121.59133.98-1.89ORCL ahead
2025-07-23120.39133.47-1.97ORCL ahead
2025-07-22120.25131.38-1.84ORCL ahead
2025-07-21121.39134.37-1.98ORCL ahead
2025-07-18121.39135.43-2.07ORCL ahead
2025-07-17121.78137.25-2.19ORCL ahead
2025-07-16120.33133.14-2.04ORCL ahead
2025-07-15120.38129.64-1.79ORCL ahead
2025-07-14119.72126.51-1.62ORCL ahead
2025-07-11119.79127.21-1.68ORCL ahead
2025-07-10119.35129.66-1.91ORCL ahead
2025-07-09119.83130.11-1.92ORCL ahead
2025-07-08118.19129.39-2.01ORCL ahead
2025-07-07118.45128.15-1.92ORCL ahead
2025-07-03118.72130.94-2.12ORCL ahead
2025-07-02116.88126.89-1.99ORCL ahead
2025-07-01117.10120.81-1.52ORCL ahead
2025-06-30118.38120.63-1.41ORCL ahead
2025-06-27118.03116.00-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-06-26118.39117.42-1.17ORCL ahead
2025-06-25117.16116.27-1.18ORCL ahead
2025-06-24116.64118.78-1.43ORCL ahead
2025-06-23115.66114.24-1.16ORCL ahead
2025-06-20113.62113.20-1.25ORCL ahead
2025-06-18114.29116.35-1.46ORCL ahead
2025-06-17113.77114.86-1.39ORCL ahead
2025-06-16114.03116.48-1.51ORCL ahead
2025-06-13113.04118.75-1.78ORCL ahead
2025-06-12113.97110.27-1.03ORCL ahead
2025-06-11112.4897.32-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-06-10112.0897.93-0.12near the usual relationship
2025-06-09112.5197.74-0.08near the usual relationship
2025-06-06111.9596.02+0.03near the usual relationship
2025-06-05111.3094.43+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-06-04110.4092.75+0.19near the usual relationship
2025-06-03110.1893.32+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-06-02109.9591.91+0.21near the usual relationship
2025-05-30109.5691.33+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-05-29109.1689.88+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-05-28108.8590.40+0.24near the usual relationship
2025-05-27109.6489.33+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-05-23107.1486.06+0.49near the usual relationship
2025-05-22108.2586.80+0.50MSFT ahead
2025-05-21107.7186.72+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-05-20109.0488.45+0.39near the usual relationship
2025-05-19109.2188.08+0.42near the usual relationship
2025-05-16108.1188.55+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-05-15107.8487.95+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-05-14107.8089.91+0.14near the usual relationship
2025-05-13106.8989.53+0.10near the usual relationship
2025-05-12106.9286.75+0.33near the usual relationship
2025-05-09104.4182.95+0.48near the usual relationship
2025-05-08104.2882.93+0.47near the usual relationship
2025-05-07103.1382.42+0.42near the usual relationship
2025-05-06103.1281.49+0.50MSFT ahead
2025-05-05103.8182.37+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-05-02103.5983.17+0.37near the usual relationship
2025-05-01101.2480.27+0.45near the usual relationship
2025-04-3094.0777.64+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-04-2993.7877.68+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-04-2893.0977.32+0.09near the usual relationship
2025-04-2593.2676.41+0.18near the usual relationship
2025-04-2492.1775.87+0.14near the usual relationship
2025-04-2389.1072.50+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-04-2287.3070.21+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-04-2185.4767.77+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-04-1787.5370.97+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-04-1688.4471.60+0.23near the usual relationship
2025-04-1591.8073.90+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-04-1492.3074.29+0.25near the usual relationship
2025-04-1192.4573.02+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-04-1090.7673.58+0.19near the usual relationship
2025-04-0992.9377.07+0.03near the usual relationship
2025-04-0884.3868.69+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-04-0785.1770.16+0.07near the usual relationship
2025-04-0485.6470.77+0.04near the usual relationship
2025-04-0388.8075.72-0.17near the usual relationship
2025-04-0290.9580.48-0.42near the usual relationship
2025-04-0190.9678.32-0.25near the usual relationship
2025-03-3189.3477.14-0.27near the usual relationship
2025-03-2890.1577.73-0.27near the usual relationship
2025-03-2792.9680.43-0.30near the usual relationship
2025-03-2692.8181.55-0.40near the usual relationship
2025-03-2594.0584.93-0.59ORCL ahead
2025-03-2493.5585.45-0.67ORCL ahead
2025-03-2193.1283.99-0.59ORCL ahead
2025-03-2092.0784.26-0.69ORCL ahead
2025-03-1992.3084.11-0.67ORCL ahead
2025-03-1891.2882.46-0.62ORCL ahead
2025-03-1792.5184.98-0.73ORCL ahead
2025-03-1492.4782.36-0.54ORCL ahead
2025-03-1390.1481.47-0.64ORCL ahead
2025-03-1291.2283.25-0.71ORCL ahead
2025-03-1190.5479.55-0.47near the usual relationship
2025-03-1090.4882.10-0.68ORCL ahead
2025-03-0793.6185.61-0.74ORCL ahead
2025-03-0694.4683.28-0.51ORCL ahead
2025-03-0595.4489.14-0.88ORCL ahead
2025-03-0492.4986.88-0.93ORCL ahead
2025-03-0392.4689.40-1.12ORCL ahead
2025-02-2894.4891.62-1.14ORCL ahead
2025-02-2793.4290.91-1.17ORCL ahead
2025-02-2695.1395.16-1.36ORCL ahead
2025-02-2594.7092.99-1.25ORCL ahead
2025-02-2496.1593.78-1.22ORCL ahead
2025-02-2197.1592.59-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-02-2099.0497.11-1.27ORCL ahead
2025-02-1998.71100.15-1.49ORCL ahead
2025-02-1897.4999.21-1.52ORCL ahead
2025-02-1497.2096.09-1.35ORCL ahead
2025-02-1397.7195.93-1.32ORCL ahead
2025-02-1297.3595.02-1.30ORCL ahead
2025-02-1197.9297.77-1.45ORCL ahead
2025-02-1098.1198.72-1.51ORCL ahead
2025-02-0797.5296.26-1.40ORCL ahead
2025-02-0698.9695.09-1.24ORCL ahead
2025-02-0598.3694.71-1.27ORCL ahead
2025-02-0498.1492.63-1.15ORCL ahead
2025-02-0397.8093.03-1.21ORCL ahead
2025-01-3198.7893.83-1.21ORCL ahead
2025-01-3098.7694.01-1.23ORCL ahead
2025-01-29105.2789.40-0.52ORCL ahead
2025-01-28106.4390.49-0.54ORCL ahead
2025-01-27103.4287.33-0.50ORCL ahead
2025-01-24105.68101.30-1.30ORCL ahead
2025-01-23106.31102.89-1.37ORCL ahead
2025-01-22106.19101.64-1.31ORCL ahead
2025-01-21101.9895.22-1.17ORCL ahead
2025-01-17102.1188.85-0.73ORCL ahead
2025-01-16101.0588.03-0.75ORCL ahead
2025-01-15101.4687.35-0.68ORCL ahead
2025-01-1498.9386.24-0.76ORCL ahead
2025-01-1399.2984.93-0.65ORCL ahead
2025-01-1099.7185.25-0.66ORCL ahead
2025-01-08101.0490.01-0.92ORCL ahead
2025-01-07100.5289.40-0.91ORCL ahead
2025-01-06101.8391.42-0.98ORCL ahead
2025-01-03100.7591.77-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-01-0299.6291.61-1.14ORCL ahead
2024-12-31100.3191.94-1.13ORCL ahead
2024-12-30101.1192.09-1.10ORCL ahead
2024-12-27102.4693.22-1.11ORCL ahead
2024-12-26104.2794.73-1.11ORCL ahead
2024-12-24104.5694.58-1.09ORCL ahead
2024-12-23103.5993.32-1.07ORCL ahead
2024-12-20103.9193.61-1.08ORCL ahead
2024-12-19104.0193.13-1.05ORCL ahead
2024-12-18104.1091.27-0.93ORCL ahead
2024-12-17108.1693.64-0.85ORCL ahead
2024-12-16107.4894.48-0.96ORCL ahead
2024-12-13106.4595.67-1.10ORCL ahead
2024-12-12106.9996.73-1.15ORCL ahead
2024-12-11106.8698.53-1.28ORCL ahead
2024-12-10105.5198.07-1.34ORCL ahead
2024-12-09106.15105.08-1.75ORCL ahead
2024-12-06105.57105.77-1.85ORCL ahead
2024-12-05105.34102.76-1.70ORCL ahead
2024-12-04104.10103.83-1.86ORCL ahead
2024-12-03102.62100.91-1.79ORCL ahead
2024-12-02102.57100.09-1.76ORCL ahead
2024-11-29100.78101.99-2.02ORCL ahead
2024-11-27100.67100.81-1.97ORCL ahead
2024-11-26101.86105.04-2.19ORCL ahead
2024-11-2599.67103.72-2.29ORCL ahead
2024-11-2299.24106.10-2.51ORCL ahead
2024-11-2198.26106.17-2.63ORCL ahead
2024-11-2098.88105.25-2.57ORCL ahead
2024-11-1999.43104.23-2.50ORCL ahead
2024-11-1898.95102.48-2.46ORCL ahead
2024-11-1598.77101.38-2.43ORCL ahead
2024-11-14101.60103.21-2.39ORCL ahead
2024-11-13101.19104.63-2.56ORCL ahead
2024-11-12100.68104.60-2.65ORCL ahead
2024-11-1199.48104.35-2.77ORCL ahead
2024-11-08100.56104.42-2.75ORCL ahead
2024-11-07101.25102.83-2.62ORCL ahead
2024-11-06100.00100.00-2.54ORCL ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Jan 21, 2025 (MSFT -0.1%, ORCL +7.2%); Jan 27, 2025 (MSFT -2.1%, ORCL -13.8%); Jan 30, 2025 (MSFT -6.2%, ORCL +5.2%); Jun 12, 2025 (MSFT +1.3%, ORCL +13.3%); Sep 10, 2025 (MSFT +0.4%, ORCL +36.0%).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

1 simulated trade to Nov 3, 2026: -7.96% per trade on average after costs, 0 won.

LegsEnteredExitedWhyDaysBefore costsCosts + borrowAfter costs
Long MSFT · Short ORCLOct 24, 2022Oct 27, 2022divergence stop3-$770.86-$24.24-$795.72 (-7.96%)

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

MSFT and ORCL at a glance

MSFT Microsoft Corporation

Listing
Nasdaq · SEC CIK 789019
Industry
Computer Software: Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 Services-Prepackaged Software
Market value
$3.87T
Price history
2,534 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Nov 10, 2026

ORCL Oracle Corporation

Listing
NYSE · SEC CIK 1341439
Industry
Computer Software: Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 Services-Prepackaged Software
Market value
$381.6B
Price history
2,534 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Nov 10, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

Related
All pairs →
PairStatusAhead nowIndustry
PLTR / ORCLWatchlistPLTR by 1.75 sdComputer Software: Prepackaged Software
MSFT / PLTRWatchlistMSFT by 1.37 sdComputer Software: Prepackaged Software

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Explore the private beta

Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.