Packaging Corporation of America vs Smurfit WestRock plc
WatchlistPKG / SWPrices through Nov 10, 2026
Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($23B vs $23B) in Nasdaq's "Containers/Packaging" industry; SEC SIC 2650 / 2650 (same major group); #1 and #2 by market value ($23B vs $23B) with SEC SIC 2650 (Paperboard Containers & Boxes).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.75 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Business leadership
SW is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | PKG | SW | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $9.0B | $31.2B | SW |
| 2024 | $8.4B | $21.1B | SW |
| 2023 | $7.8B | $12.1B | SW |
| 2022 | $8.5B | $13.5B | SW |
| 2021 | $7.7B | - | - |
| 2020 | $6.7B | - | - |
SW led in every year with figures for both. Market value: PKG $22.7B, SW $22.8B.
Stock leadership
PKG is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
PKG leads SW by 1.49 standard deviations: +7.5% over its usual price ratio. 4 lead switches in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| PKG | -0.8% | +15.6% | +26.8% |
| SW | -9.9% | +9.3% | +23.9% |
Relationship
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 590 (needs >= 254)
- Pass
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.78 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.75 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Pass
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 11.28 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
PKG Packaging Corporation of America SW Smurfit WestRock plcPrice index, 100 = 2024-11-06. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: PKG relative to SW, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: PKG ahead; below 0: SW ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | PKG index | SW index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 105.23 | 83.37 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-11-09 | 105.31 | 83.05 | +1.59 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-11-06 | 103.36 | 82.86 | +1.26 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-11-05 | 102.98 | 83.65 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-11-04 | 107.28 | 84.93 | +1.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-11-03 | 105.53 | 81.60 | +2.05 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-11-02 | 107.06 | 81.56 | +2.40 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-30 | 106.30 | 80.98 | +2.44 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-29 | 105.36 | 79.93 | +2.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-28 | 102.84 | 75.79 | +3.22 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-27 | 104.73 | 79.95 | +2.48 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-26 | 105.03 | 79.38 | +2.74 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-23 | 102.36 | 78.65 | +2.41 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-22 | 103.03 | 79.74 | +2.28 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 98.93 | 77.92 | +1.90 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 98.89 | 77.41 | +2.06 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-19 | 97.84 | 76.75 | +2.04 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-16 | 97.69 | 77.35 | +1.85 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 96.27 | 77.50 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 95.19 | 76.58 | +1.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 95.89 | 77.90 | +1.31 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 94.30 | 77.18 | +1.15 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 95.41 | 77.60 | +1.30 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 95.18 | 77.90 | +1.17 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 94.06 | 77.60 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 95.09 | 79.67 | +0.65 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 94.92 | 79.70 | +0.60 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 94.60 | 79.95 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-01 | 95.08 | 80.89 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-30 | 94.90 | 82.88 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-29 | 96.56 | 83.41 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-28 | 97.07 | 84.70 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-25 | 98.17 | 87.22 | -0.65 | SW ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 98.56 | 86.45 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-23 | 99.75 | 87.37 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-22 | 98.61 | 87.30 | -0.54 | SW ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 98.64 | 85.34 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-18 | 96.35 | 83.31 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-17 | 97.51 | 85.47 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-16 | 95.80 | 83.78 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-15 | 95.70 | 82.15 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-14 | 96.55 | 82.22 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-11 | 97.02 | 81.23 | +0.71 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-09-10 | 96.20 | 79.33 | +1.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-09-09 | 94.08 | 79.31 | +0.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 96.03 | 83.18 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-04 | 98.20 | 86.13 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-03 | 97.09 | 85.06 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-02 | 96.67 | 85.25 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-01 | 94.84 | 85.38 | -0.68 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 96.83 | 88.14 | -0.88 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-28 | 99.50 | 90.75 | -0.91 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 100.87 | 91.39 | -0.77 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 102.11 | 93.14 | -0.88 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 102.05 | 92.90 | -0.83 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 103.02 | 91.51 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-21 | 104.64 | 92.82 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-20 | 103.30 | 90.57 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-19 | 104.69 | 91.54 | -0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-18 | 103.61 | 88.89 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-17 | 104.71 | 89.85 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-14 | 105.75 | 92.56 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-13 | 106.40 | 94.00 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-12 | 106.09 | 92.56 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-11 | 106.56 | 93.25 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-10 | 105.45 | 89.44 | +0.52 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 105.98 | 90.73 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-06 | 104.62 | 88.20 | +0.63 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 105.97 | 91.09 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-04 | 105.75 | 91.19 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-03 | 103.93 | 88.10 | +0.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 101.76 | 86.39 | +0.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 102.91 | 89.31 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-29 | 103.25 | 90.70 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-28 | 104.82 | 95.47 | -0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-27 | 104.46 | 94.14 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-24 | 105.30 | 91.26 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-23 | 96.82 | 82.15 | +0.56 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 94.45 | 83.65 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-21 | 94.46 | 80.92 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-20 | 94.55 | 81.07 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-17 | 96.47 | 83.26 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-16 | 96.87 | 84.14 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-15 | 94.32 | 81.92 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-14 | 93.45 | 80.64 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-13 | 93.49 | 81.09 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-10 | 94.69 | 83.12 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-09 | 92.92 | 80.79 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-08 | 92.91 | 79.08 | +0.57 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 96.20 | 84.57 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-06 | 97.85 | 85.77 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-02 | 98.60 | 86.32 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-01 | 98.49 | 86.62 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-30 | 98.63 | 86.94 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-29 | 98.37 | 86.77 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-26 | 99.98 | 88.29 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-25 | 99.79 | 88.03 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-24 | 98.45 | 87.50 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-23 | 96.37 | 83.37 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-22 | 96.87 | 85.30 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-18 | 94.80 | 83.07 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-17 | 94.90 | 81.60 | +0.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 95.02 | 82.79 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-15 | 95.19 | 83.65 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-12 | 94.47 | 81.41 | +0.50 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 92.88 | 80.23 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-10 | 89.67 | 73.20 | +1.13 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 94.10 | 77.73 | +1.00 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 90.83 | 76.11 | +0.85 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 92.23 | 77.58 | +0.81 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-04 | 93.00 | 79.46 | +0.64 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 92.88 | 79.16 | +0.67 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 93.06 | 79.38 | +0.67 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 91.75 | 77.52 | +0.78 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 90.61 | 77.34 | +0.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 90.29 | 77.09 | +0.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-27 | 90.23 | 74.95 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-26 | 90.43 | 73.67 | +1.22 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-22 | 89.37 | 71.51 | +1.43 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-21 | 88.48 | 70.93 | +1.42 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-20 | 88.25 | 69.78 | +1.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-19 | 84.10 | 66.94 | +1.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-18 | 87.21 | 70.19 | +1.40 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-15 | 87.79 | 70.44 | +1.44 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-14 | 91.10 | 75.21 | +1.14 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-13 | 90.33 | 76.00 | +0.94 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-12 | 91.04 | 76.26 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-11 | 91.69 | 76.87 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-08 | 92.96 | 78.09 | +0.98 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-07 | 92.48 | 78.24 | +0.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-06 | 93.89 | 78.73 | +1.01 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 92.19 | 74.25 | +1.46 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 90.26 | 71.36 | +1.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 90.26 | 74.10 | +1.28 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 88.35 | 72.15 | +1.35 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 89.43 | 74.57 | +1.13 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 92.14 | 76.23 | +1.22 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 87.98 | 75.25 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 88.11 | 75.10 | +0.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 89.00 | 76.15 | +0.88 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 84.95 | 74.59 | +0.60 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 87.14 | 77.47 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-20 | 88.34 | 80.25 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-17 | 88.33 | 79.38 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-16 | 85.94 | 77.43 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-15 | 85.71 | 77.80 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-14 | 86.90 | 79.12 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-13 | 87.12 | 79.14 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-10 | 85.43 | 79.05 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-09 | 86.15 | 79.20 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-08 | 87.36 | 79.46 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-07 | 84.24 | 73.73 | +0.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 85.02 | 75.38 | +0.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 84.63 | 73.84 | +0.72 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 87.45 | 75.42 | +0.85 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 87.84 | 74.89 | +0.98 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 86.53 | 71.88 | +1.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 87.86 | 74.07 | +1.12 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 88.00 | 76.00 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 88.31 | 76.43 | +0.86 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 88.37 | 74.91 | +1.09 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 86.54 | 72.73 | +1.19 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 83.91 | 68.05 | +1.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 84.60 | 69.40 | +1.47 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 86.68 | 72.51 | +1.28 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 89.40 | 75.32 | +1.21 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 88.97 | 74.08 | +1.35 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 88.79 | 74.70 | +1.24 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 88.60 | 74.63 | +1.24 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 92.13 | 79.31 | +1.01 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 91.61 | 80.32 | +0.82 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 92.22 | 79.10 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 92.11 | 80.53 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 93.64 | 83.80 | +0.62 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 96.26 | 84.93 | +0.78 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 95.79 | 84.95 | +0.73 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 95.70 | 87.99 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-27 | 96.09 | 88.35 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-26 | 95.96 | 87.33 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-25 | 95.58 | 86.39 | +0.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 94.74 | 86.26 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-23 | 93.36 | 86.99 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-20 | 98.19 | 91.60 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-19 | 98.91 | 93.55 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-18 | 98.94 | 97.43 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-17 | 99.50 | 95.51 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-13 | 101.95 | 96.90 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-12 | 101.44 | 96.64 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-11 | 101.23 | 94.49 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-10 | 100.08 | 85.98 | +1.09 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-09 | 98.81 | 82.79 | +1.34 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-06 | 98.87 | 82.95 | +1.33 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 95.99 | 81.13 | +1.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 96.22 | 83.42 | +1.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-03 | 92.89 | 76.87 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 92.60 | 78.86 | +1.23 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 92.12 | 78.24 | +1.26 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 91.15 | 79.16 | +1.06 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 90.07 | 79.70 | +0.89 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 92.56 | 80.74 | +1.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-26 | 91.82 | 81.53 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 93.29 | 82.32 | +0.94 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 90.55 | 78.52 | +1.11 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 91.06 | 78.80 | +1.14 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 89.87 | 76.96 | +1.25 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 91.61 | 80.27 | +1.04 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 91.87 | 81.43 | +0.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 91.05 | 80.32 | +0.98 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 90.50 | 80.21 | +0.95 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 89.91 | 80.70 | +0.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 90.79 | 80.77 | +0.92 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 88.53 | 79.50 | +0.84 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 85.60 | 74.50 | +1.15 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 87.64 | 76.96 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-05 | 87.39 | 75.31 | +1.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-02 | 87.39 | 74.42 | +1.39 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-31 | 85.36 | 72.67 | +1.41 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-30 | 86.20 | 72.99 | +1.47 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-29 | 86.42 | 72.69 | +1.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-26 | 86.47 | 72.81 | +1.56 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-24 | 85.82 | 71.66 | +1.66 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-23 | 85.61 | 71.87 | +1.62 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-22 | 85.50 | 71.58 | +1.66 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-19 | 83.95 | 71.62 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-18 | 84.45 | 72.58 | +1.43 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-17 | 83.75 | 71.45 | +1.52 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-16 | 84.30 | 70.83 | +1.69 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-15 | 84.64 | 70.55 | +1.79 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-12 | 84.88 | 69.89 | +1.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-11 | 84.98 | 71.43 | +1.74 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-10 | 83.87 | 69.86 | +1.86 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-09 | 80.05 | 66.36 | +1.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-08 | 81.46 | 67.77 | +1.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-05 | 82.16 | 67.73 | +2.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 81.39 | 68.50 | +1.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-03 | 81.94 | 67.88 | +2.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-02 | 79.70 | 64.74 | +2.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 84.13 | 67.00 | +2.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 84.47 | 67.07 | +2.61 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 84.23 | 67.24 | +2.59 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 83.31 | 65.70 | +2.78 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 81.68 | 63.35 | +3.04 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 81.67 | 63.48 | +3.09 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 79.34 | 61.62 | +3.17 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 80.43 | 63.28 | +3.08 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 81.39 | 63.56 | +3.25 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-17 | 81.41 | 63.75 | +3.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-14 | 81.63 | 64.44 | +3.26 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-13 | 82.41 | 65.93 | +3.16 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-12 | 82.97 | 66.49 | +3.21 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-11 | 84.03 | 67.36 | +3.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 83.08 | 66.72 | +3.34 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 83.01 | 67.30 | +3.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 81.99 | 67.13 | +3.22 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 82.42 | 67.75 | +3.24 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 81.61 | 68.24 | +3.05 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-03 | 80.96 | 68.73 | +2.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-31 | 81.03 | 69.39 | +2.75 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 81.20 | 67.73 | +3.21 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 81.40 | 71.11 | +2.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 85.33 | 80.98 | +1.15 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 85.52 | 81.56 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 84.78 | 80.94 | +1.05 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-23 | 88.27 | 80.85 | +1.71 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-22 | 86.40 | 80.17 | +1.50 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-21 | 86.15 | 79.89 | +1.50 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-20 | 85.22 | 79.36 | +1.43 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-17 | 84.16 | 77.80 | +1.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-16 | 85.00 | 77.65 | +1.74 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-15 | 86.78 | 78.48 | +1.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-14 | 87.24 | 79.36 | +1.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-13 | 85.99 | 78.05 | +1.88 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 85.58 | 76.02 | +2.26 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-09 | 87.50 | 80.61 | +1.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 88.28 | 81.38 | +1.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 87.15 | 77.39 | +2.33 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 88.14 | 75.76 | +2.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-03 | 88.80 | 78.89 | +2.41 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 89.26 | 78.71 | +2.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 88.93 | 80.17 | +2.23 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 90.21 | 80.00 | +2.56 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 89.52 | 79.33 | +2.62 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 89.39 | 79.18 | +2.67 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 88.22 | 79.46 | +2.40 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 89.13 | 81.28 | +2.19 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 88.46 | 82.33 | +1.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 88.05 | 81.71 | +1.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 87.45 | 82.35 | +1.65 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 88.56 | 83.01 | +1.75 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 87.79 | 82.77 | +1.64 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 87.53 | 83.22 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 87.67 | 83.57 | +1.44 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 89.06 | 83.20 | +1.84 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 89.83 | 85.77 | +1.42 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 88.19 | 85.08 | +1.23 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 88.61 | 85.25 | +1.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 89.38 | 87.75 | +0.90 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 91.17 | 88.16 | +1.20 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 89.71 | 86.77 | +1.20 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 88.14 | 88.24 | +0.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 89.59 | 88.54 | +0.79 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 90.22 | 89.01 | +0.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 89.68 | 87.18 | +1.13 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 87.21 | 85.81 | +0.89 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 87.59 | 87.01 | +0.70 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 87.85 | 86.32 | +0.92 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 88.06 | 85.89 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 87.07 | 82.11 | +1.75 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 82.01 | 78.84 | +1.37 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 82.06 | 81.13 | +0.82 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 80.35 | 80.66 | +0.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 80.06 | 80.23 | +0.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 81.34 | 82.17 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-13 | 83.11 | 84.80 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-12 | 82.35 | 83.20 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-11 | 81.39 | 81.60 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-08 | 81.31 | 82.00 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-07 | 80.66 | 82.32 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-06 | 79.56 | 80.12 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-05 | 80.10 | 83.01 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-04 | 79.92 | 82.80 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-01 | 79.23 | 83.35 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-31 | 80.20 | 83.41 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-30 | 82.14 | 89.01 | -0.99 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 84.05 | 90.58 | -0.88 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 84.52 | 91.20 | -0.90 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 85.49 | 91.81 | -0.79 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 85.24 | 90.26 | -0.53 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 85.40 | 89.85 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-22 | 84.97 | 86.90 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-21 | 83.36 | 85.40 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-18 | 82.71 | 84.31 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-17 | 83.71 | 86.60 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-16 | 83.85 | 86.21 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-15 | 82.65 | 85.32 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-14 | 84.19 | 87.18 | -0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-11 | 85.23 | 88.71 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-10 | 85.78 | 90.25 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-09 | 84.47 | 88.78 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-08 | 83.93 | 88.55 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-07 | 83.31 | 88.03 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-03 | 83.73 | 90.26 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-02 | 83.59 | 88.67 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-01 | 83.92 | 86.17 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-30 | 78.00 | 81.09 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-27 | 78.40 | 80.92 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-26 | 77.67 | 80.21 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-25 | 77.34 | 79.83 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-24 | 78.40 | 81.75 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-23 | 78.11 | 79.72 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-20 | 77.35 | 79.59 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-18 | 77.09 | 79.67 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-17 | 77.13 | 80.42 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-16 | 78.42 | 81.28 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-13 | 78.05 | 78.89 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-12 | 80.02 | 80.81 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-11 | 79.97 | 81.54 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-10 | 81.64 | 82.33 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-09 | 81.37 | 82.67 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-06 | 81.29 | 81.41 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-05 | 80.59 | 80.94 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-04 | 80.03 | 80.04 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-03 | 80.33 | 80.45 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-02 | 79.58 | 80.10 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-30 | 79.96 | 81.43 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-29 | 79.89 | 82.52 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-28 | 79.56 | 81.77 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-27 | 80.23 | 83.42 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-23 | 78.94 | 82.20 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-22 | 79.69 | 83.59 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-21 | 78.97 | 83.61 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-20 | 80.12 | 86.34 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-19 | 80.48 | 87.18 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-16 | 80.39 | 87.65 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-15 | 78.96 | 87.63 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-14 | 79.44 | 87.60 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-13 | 78.14 | 86.41 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-12 | 78.81 | 84.57 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-09 | 75.09 | 78.74 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-08 | 75.92 | 78.37 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-07 | 74.51 | 75.17 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-06 | 74.56 | 74.35 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-05 | 75.01 | 74.46 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-02 | 77.58 | 77.58 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-01 | 75.90 | 76.06 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-30 | 76.83 | 78.97 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-29 | 76.98 | 79.59 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-28 | 77.15 | 79.97 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-25 | 76.50 | 79.36 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-24 | 78.11 | 79.78 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-23 | 76.45 | 78.78 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-22 | 77.16 | 78.07 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-21 | 75.36 | 76.64 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-17 | 77.48 | 77.71 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-16 | 77.30 | 76.62 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-15 | 78.11 | 77.26 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-14 | 78.91 | 77.88 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-11 | 78.21 | 76.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-10 | 76.76 | 75.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-09 | 78.41 | 80.21 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-08 | 72.84 | 71.77 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-07 | 74.94 | 74.07 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-04 | 75.92 | 77.17 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-03 | 78.30 | 80.27 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-02 | 83.35 | 88.44 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-01 | 82.76 | 85.74 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-31 | 81.97 | 84.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-28 | 80.92 | 83.65 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-27 | 82.07 | 85.32 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-26 | 82.58 | 85.10 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-25 | 82.27 | 85.64 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-24 | 83.12 | 84.61 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-21 | 80.47 | 83.09 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-20 | 81.62 | 85.90 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-19 | 82.16 | 86.45 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-18 | 81.80 | 84.70 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-17 | 82.17 | 85.02 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-14 | 81.46 | 83.20 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-13 | 79.49 | 81.62 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-12 | 81.67 | 83.16 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-11 | 81.73 | 81.86 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-10 | 82.47 | 81.17 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-07 | 85.54 | 87.45 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-06 | 84.36 | 87.84 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-05 | 85.01 | 90.75 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-04 | 83.72 | 87.75 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-03 | 86.68 | 94.16 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-28 | 88.20 | 97.86 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-27 | 87.23 | 97.14 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-26 | 88.06 | 100.58 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-25 | 88.02 | 99.59 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-24 | 86.82 | 101.20 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-21 | 86.06 | 99.91 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-20 | 86.79 | 101.67 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-19 | 87.88 | 103.97 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-18 | 87.81 | 103.93 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-14 | 87.96 | 100.83 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-13 | 87.81 | 102.71 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-12 | 84.73 | 95.72 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-11 | 86.20 | 100.81 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-10 | 86.68 | 100.60 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-07 | 87.02 | 101.48 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-06 | 87.88 | 103.10 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-05 | 87.07 | 102.50 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-04 | 87.19 | 101.20 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-03 | 87.45 | 100.58 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-31 | 88.03 | 99.77 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-30 | 88.68 | 100.09 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-29 | 89.04 | 100.66 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-28 | 98.68 | 102.12 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-27 | 99.23 | 103.14 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-24 | 99.45 | 105.28 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-23 | 99.03 | 103.87 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-22 | 99.26 | 104.02 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-21 | 100.22 | 103.35 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-17 | 98.46 | 99.53 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-16 | 97.40 | 98.14 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-15 | 97.36 | 99.51 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-14 | 96.30 | 99.47 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-13 | 95.34 | 98.03 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-10 | 94.40 | 97.29 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-08 | 94.60 | 97.59 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-07 | 93.54 | 97.93 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-06 | 93.99 | 100.26 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-03 | 93.50 | 98.29 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-02 | 93.23 | 100.73 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-31 | 93.19 | 101.22 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-30 | 93.12 | 100.77 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-27 | 94.00 | 102.14 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-26 | 94.97 | 101.77 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-24 | 94.71 | 102.48 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-23 | 93.99 | 101.35 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-20 | 94.37 | 100.13 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-19 | 94.15 | 96.18 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-18 | 94.88 | 97.24 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-17 | 96.26 | 101.35 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-16 | 98.14 | 102.80 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-13 | 98.56 | 100.98 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-12 | 98.97 | 100.45 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-11 | 98.78 | 100.51 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-10 | 98.61 | 100.41 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-09 | 99.19 | 102.12 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-06 | 100.53 | 102.63 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-05 | 101.14 | 102.93 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-04 | 100.99 | 102.56 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-03 | 101.02 | 103.78 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-02 | 101.33 | 103.57 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-29 | 103.01 | 103.40 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-27 | 102.25 | 102.91 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-26 | 102.67 | 104.36 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-25 | 102.36 | 105.71 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-22 | 101.99 | 106.45 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-21 | 101.54 | 105.94 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-20 | 101.04 | 104.68 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-19 | 98.64 | 99.91 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-18 | 98.56 | 100.43 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-15 | 97.61 | 97.09 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-14 | 97.52 | 94.63 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-13 | 98.65 | 95.83 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-12 | 99.26 | 95.21 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-11 | 99.96 | 98.31 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-08 | 99.59 | 98.46 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-07 | 99.13 | 100.45 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-06 | 100.00 | 100.00 | n/a |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 29, 2025 (PKG -4.6%, SW -12.2%); Feb 11, 2026 (PKG +1.1%, SW +9.9%).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
| Legs | Signal | Entered | Status | Exit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long SW · Short PKG | Oct 19, 2026 (2.04 sd) | Oct 20, 2026 | open | - | -$21.23 if closed now |
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
No simulated trade through Nov 3, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart. One simulated trade is still open (entered Oct 20, 2026).
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
PKG and SW at a glance
PKG Packaging Corporation of America
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 75677
- Industry
- Containers/Packaging · SIC 2650 Paperboard Containers & Boxes
- Market value
- $22.7B
- Price history
- 2,534 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Nov 10, 2026
SW Smurfit WestRock plc
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 2005951
- Industry
- Containers/Packaging · SIC 2650 Paperboard Containers & Boxes
- Market value
- $22.8B
- Price history
- 590 daily closes, Jul 8, 2024 to Nov 10, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of PKG and SW
Follow the research behind the paper book
Boostio is a research-first platform in private beta: crypto candidates, daily market stories, public paper trading and now rival stocks. Exploring these pages stays free and open.
Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
